MAPI report shows slow, steady growth in manufacturing

The manufacturing sector enjoyed a resurgence in the third quarter of 2009, increasing production at an 8% annual rate, but the general economic and industrial recovery will be hard-pressed to maintain that pace of growth, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI U.S. quarterly report: “Industrial Outlook: No V-Shaped Recovery.

12/01/2009


 

The manufacturing sector enjoyed a resurgence in the third quarter of 2009, increasing production at an 8% annual rate, but the general economic and industrial recovery will be hard-pressed to maintain that pace of growth, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI U.S. quarterly report: “Industrial Outlook: No V-Shaped Recovery.”

 

“Certainly the huge fiscal and monetary stimulus is compensating for the de-leveraging of the American consumer and has helped some of the most depressed industries in the economy, like autos and housing, but the most important reason may be that the worst of the inventory de-stocking is ending,” said Daniel J. Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI and author of the analysis. “There are, however, cautionary flags that may dampen the recovery. For instance, job losses will continue through mid-2010; there is relatively little, if any, wage growth; credit is difficult to obtain without stellar credit scores; housing prices may fall further; and consumers are repaying debt and building a cash cushion.”

 

On an annual basis, MAPI forecasts manufacturing production to fall 11% in 2009, before recovering to 5% growth in 2010 and to 6% growth in 2011.

 



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