Interact Analysis has released a comprehensive report on the post-COVID-19 growth scenario up until 2024 for the geared motors and industrial (heavy-duty) gears market. The 7%+ reduction in the geared motors and gearbox market for 2020 means short-term difficulties for manufacturers. However, all the indicators point to a period of sustained recovery and growth through 2021 and 2022, with slower growth up to 2024. The need for more automated and flexible equipment in a post-COVID industrial landscape is a major driver of this demand.

Growth will vary from region to region. Of the top ten markets for geared motors and industrial gears, China and India are predicted to head the growth table. Germany will be the slowest to recover due to the sector’s reliance on the depleted export market.

Geared motors used in the transportation sector will, unsurprisingly, given how aerospace and automotive have suffered during the pandemic, be among the slowest industries to recover. Whereas products used in the logistics sector are forecast to see booming sales as rapidly increasing e-commerce and automation in the sector creates an ever-increasing demand for conveyors and packaging machinery – two of the largest markets gearboxes.

Of the different geared products – geared motors, heavy duty gearboxes, solo and planetary gearboxes; geared motors will see the fastest recovery, especially as end users increasingly see the benefit of purchasing a packaged solution from a single vendor. Industrial heavy-duty gearboxes will continue to be the second largest gearbox market, but forecast growth will be negligible, seeing a below average CAGR of only 0.9% up to 2024. The market performance of these products is tied directly to the performance of industries such as metals and mining, which have seen a more severe COVID-induced dip in output and hence will take longer to recover.

Tim Dawson, lead analyst at Interact Analysis, said: “Generally speaking, lighter-duty geared motor and solo gearbox products will recover more quickly than heavier-duty products. These solutions tend to be used more extensively in machinery sectors and end-user industries that have been less impacted by the pandemic. Some industries, such as warehousing and logistics have been positively stimulated by the virus, and are increasing investment in automated machinery incorporating geared equipment in response to high e-commerce demand, and the need to reduce the human workforce to enforce social distancing; this last factor being a significant driver of growth we would never even have conceived of 6 months ago. Such is the changing world we live in.”

– Edited by Chris Vavra, associate editor, Control Engineering, CFE Media and Technology, cvavra@cfemedia.com.

Original content can be found at Control Engineering.

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