MAPI report: Manufacturing growth to outperform GDP
The U.S. manufacturing recovery continues on track and should outperform overall GDP growth through 2013, according to the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) U.S. Industrial Outlook, a quarterly report that analyzes 27 major industries.
“There exists pent-up demand for consumer durable goods, particularly for motor vehicles, and firms are profitable and need to spend more for both traditional and high-tech business equipment,” said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D., MAPI chief economist and author of the analysis. “In addition, strong—though decelerating—growth in emerging economies is still driving U.S. exports.”
Despite the fact that the global economy remains volatile, Meckstroth said the risk of recession for the U.S. has receded in the last three months.
“Although political and military risks cannot be directly modeled, the financial market conditions and long lead time economic indicators are less threatening,” he noted.
The report offers economic forecasts for 24 of the 27 industries. MAPI anticipates that 20 of the 24 industries will show gains in 2012, led by housing starts with 22% growth, albeit from severely depressed levels in 2011. Manufacturing industrial production increased 4.5% in 2011. MAPI forecasts that it will increase 4% in 2012 and 3.5% in 2013. The 2012 forecast is up 1% and the 2013 forecast is down 0.5% from the December 2011 report. Manufacturing production should outperform GDP growth, which MAPI estimates will be 2.2% in 2012 and 2.4% in 2013.
According to the report, non-high-tech manufacturing production (which accounts for 90% of the total) is anticipated to increase 3% in both 2012 and in 2013. High-tech industrial production (computers and electronic products) is projected to expand by 4% in 2012 and show 9% growth in 2013.