Beyond the tipping point, what happens next to the video surveillance market?

In a recent press release, IMS Research forecast that global sales of network video surveillance equipment will overtake analogue sales in 2014, in terms of sales revenue. Whilst we forecast that 2014 will see network video sales overtake analogue, what will happen next?
By Gary Wong, Senior Analyst, Video Surveillance and VCA, IMS Research July 28, 2011

IMS research: excellence in market intelligneceIn a recent press release, IMS Research forecast that global sales of network video surveillance equipment will overtake analogue sales in 2014, in terms of sales revenue.

The “tip” is partly due to strong, sustained y-o-y growth of network video surveillance equipment and partly due to a decline in analogue sales. On one side of the scales you have the decline in demand for analogue video surveillance equipment at the enterprise/high tier of the market and increasing price competition in the mid-to-low end of the market. These are both key factors depressing analogue video surveillance equipment sales. On the other side, the increasing demand for, and relatively mild price erosion of, network video surveillance equipment are strong contributory factors to the “tip”.

Whilst we forecast that 2014 will see network video sales overtake analogue, what will happen next?

Will analogue video surveillance equipment sales collapse?

Will network video surveillance equipment growth “shoot through the roof”?

The short (and unsexy) answer is: No.

The day after the market has “tipped” will likely be exactly the same as any other day. Whilst some may theorise that the growth of IP video surveillance is the same as any other technology – once the market has moved beyond the early majority the growth rate increases rapidly – IMS Research does not. The market for video surveillance equipment (analogue and network) is an evolutionary market and the transition from analogue to network will continue to be a gradual process. The tipping point by no means symbolises the imminent death of analogue video surveillance equipment, far from it. If the video surveillance market is considered in terms of unit shipments, IMS Research forecasts that, in 2014, analogue surveillance cameras will continue to outsell network cameras.

The tipping point does, however, provide a strong indicator that the growth opportunity for vendors of analogue video surveillance equipment will become increasingly limited.