The recovery is coming – slowly
The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Quarterly Economic Forecast predicts that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which grew by a miniscule 1.1% in 2008, will decline 2.9% in 2009 before rebounding to 1.9% growth in 2010. The GDP forecast for 2009 in the current MAPI report is lower than the previously anticipated 2.
The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Quarterly Economic Forecast predicts that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which grew by a miniscule 1.1% in 2008, will decline 2.9% in 2009 before rebounding to 1.9% growth in 2010. The GDP forecast for 2009 in the current MAPI report is lower than the previously anticipated 2.1% decline for this year projected in the February 2009 release “We are in a severe global recession where manufacturing is taking the brunt of the decline. Fortunately, we are starting to see signs of economic conditions beginning to stabilize,” said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Chief Economist. “We expect that the eventual recovery will be sluggish due to continued deleveraging by consumers as they move away from excessive debt and to greater savings. Lagging improvement in the job market and persistently high unemployment rates will restrain the pace of the recovery.
“There are nonetheless inklings of a future firming economy,” he added, “including the stimulus package beginning to take effect, tax cuts, rising consumer spending, strengthening commodity prices, and recent improvement in the stock market. These “green shoots” offer a glimmer of hope moving into the latter stages of 2009 and into 2010.”
Manufacturing production growth declined by 3.2% in 2008. It is likely to continue on a significant downward spiral in 2009, with expectations for an 11.8% decline this year. Previously, MAPI had forecast production to decline by 9.1% in 2009. Some relief comes in 2010 with manufacturing production anticipated to grow by 2.1%.
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Before the calendar turned, 2016 already had the makings of a pivotal year for manufacturing, and for the world.
There were the big events for the year, including the United States as Partner Country at Hannover Messe in April and the 2016 International Manufacturing Technology Show in Chicago in September. There's also the matter of the U.S. presidential elections in November, which promise to shape policy in manufacturing for years to come.
But the year started with global economic turmoil, as a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing triggered a worldwide stock hiccup that sent values plummeting. The continued plunge in world oil prices has resulted in a slowdown in exploration and, by extension, the manufacture of exploration equipment.
Read more: 2015 Salary Survey