Mixed landscape forecast for world medium-voltage motors market in 2015

Mixed landscape forecast for world medium-voltage motors market in 2015 with an expected uptick in growth globally in the medium to long term.

07/08/2015


The performance of the market for medium-voltage (MV) motors is linked closely to the performance of its end-user industries as well as global economic conditions. The significance of these two factors has never been more apparent than in the last few years as the world economy continues to improve from a global recession that has been compounded by problems in the still-recovering Eurozone economy, a marked slowdown in the Chinese economy, a variety of geopolitical problems, oil prices falling steeply, a global mining downturn, and the like.

Global economy is expected to continue improvement despite headwinds in regional economies 

All three regions are faced with different economic difficulties, which are expected to be offset by the overall market landscape in the medium to long term. Facing the problem of the Greek debt crisis, the Eurozone’s delayed recovery is forecast to eventually gain momentum, aided by monetary stimulus, euro depreciation and pent-up demand.  Despite the Chinese economic slowdown, India, another major Asia-Pacific economy, is expected to lead regional (as well as global) growth with a projected 7.5% growth in GDP in 2015. In the American region, the US economy is being supported by acceleration in consumer spending and homebuilding, while Latin American countries are struggling against economic recession, including Venezuela, Argentina and Brazil.

The world market for medium voltage motors by region: 2014 revenues and CAGR growth. Courtesy: IHS TechnologyLooking forward, the global economy is forecast to persevere and eventually resume growth. As such, dynamic capital investment activities are foreseen to boost the demand for MV motors. 

The world medium-voltage motors market is estimated to have been worth $5.7 billion in 2014; IHS forecasts the market to decline slightly by 1.9% in 2015 to $5.6 billion, but then grow at a revenue CAGR of 3.6% from 2014 to 2019, achieving a market size of $6.8 billion in 2019. Across the three regions, Asia Pacific is estimated to have contributed to the most revenues in 2014 at nearly $2.7 billion. The region is also predicted to outperform the global market average in regards to a revenue CAGR of 3.8% during the same timeframe. Despite the setback of a projected 3.2% contraction in 2015, IHS predicts American market growth to outpace that of the EMEA market with a revenue CAGR of 3.6% to reach nearly $1.8 billion in 2019. In addition, China, the world’s largest country market for MV motors, is forecast to hold its market–leading position in 2019 with close to $2.1 billion in revenues equating to a 30.8% market share, albeit the share is down from 31% in 2014. The US market was the world’s second-largest cuntry market in 2014, with estimated revenues of $902.0 million; the market is predicted to remain the world’s second largest in 2019 with nearly $1.1 billion in revenues.

The sharp decline of oil prices is subsiding, and end-market demands are expected to increase, albeit with varying industry performance

The world market for medium voltage motors market breakdown in 2014: By revenues ($M) and growth (%). Courtesy: IHS TechnologyThe industry sectors of oil and natural gas, power generation, metals and mining were top consumers of MV motors in 2014, accounting for 22.3% ($1.3 billion), 16.2% ($923.0 million), 13.3% ($757.9 million) and 11.4% ($651.7 million) of the market, respectively, in 2014. Furthermore, there is substantial variance in industry sector performances across the three regions.  For instance, in 2014 EMEA was the largest consumer of MV motors in the oil and gas sector and Asia Pacific was the largest market for power generation and metals. In addition, medium-voltage motor suppliers often have their own well-known specialized products or downstream industries apart from top suppliers, like ABB and Siemens, which have strong presence in various fields with comprehensive product portfolios. For example, the top Chinese MV motor supplier in 2014, Shanghai Electric Motor, has a strong presence in the power generation and metals markets in Asia Pacific.

Over the forecast period, the chemical, power generation, and water and wastewater subsectors are predicted to grow at different rates, though each is forecast to outperform average total sector growth during the forecast period at CAGRs of 4.6%, 5.0% and 5.5%, respectively. On the other hand, the subsectors of cement, metals, mining, oil and gas, pulp and paper are forecast to underperform the average total sector growth at CAGRs of 3.0%, 3.2%, 1.8%, 2.9% and 2.6%, respectively.

The market landscape by industry is forecast to change as a result of growth among various subsectors during the forecast period. Power generation is predicted to strengthen its position as the top subsector, accounting for 17.3% (or $1.2 billion) of the market in 2019. In addition, the chemical, water and wastewater, and commercial marine subsectors are projected to increase market share to account for 8.1%, 6.6% and 7.6%, respectively. On the other hand, the oil and natural gas sector is forecast to decline by 0.8 percentage points to 21.5% of total revenues despite remaining the largest subsector in 2019. The cement, metals, mining and pulp and paper subsectors are projected to shrink in size over the forecast period with relatively lower CAGRs of 4.6%, 13.0%, 10.4% and 1.4%, respectively.

-  
Shirly Zhu, is an analyst for industrial automation, at IHS Technology, providing information on the market for medium voltage motors. IHS Technology is a CFE Media content partner. Edited by Joy Chang, digital project manager, CFE Media, jchang@cfemedia.com.



No comments
The Top Plant program honors outstanding manufacturing facilities in North America. View the 2015 Top Plant.
The Product of the Year program recognizes products newly released in the manufacturing industries.
The Engineering Leaders Under 40 program identifies and gives recognition to young engineers who...
2016 Product of the Year; Diagnose bearing failures; Asset performance management; Testing dust collector performance measures
Safety for 18 years, warehouse maintenance tips, Ethernet and the IIoT, GAMS 2016 recap
2016 Engineering Leaders Under 40; Future vision: Where is manufacturing headed?; Electrical distribution, redefined
SCADA at the junction, Managing risk through maintenance, Moving at the speed of data
Safety at every angle, Big Data's impact on operations, bridging the skills gap
The digital oilfield: Utilizing Big Data can yield big savings; Virtualization a real solution; Tracking SIS performance
Applying network redundancy; Overcoming loop tuning challenges; PID control and networks
Driving motor efficiency; Preventing arc flash in mission critical facilities; Integrating alternative power and existing electrical systems
Package boilers; Natural gas infrared heating; Thermal treasure; Standby generation; Natural gas supports green efforts

Annual Salary Survey

Before the calendar turned, 2016 already had the makings of a pivotal year for manufacturing, and for the world.

There were the big events for the year, including the United States as Partner Country at Hannover Messe in April and the 2016 International Manufacturing Technology Show in Chicago in September. There's also the matter of the U.S. presidential elections in November, which promise to shape policy in manufacturing for years to come.

But the year started with global economic turmoil, as a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing triggered a worldwide stock hiccup that sent values plummeting. The continued plunge in world oil prices has resulted in a slowdown in exploration and, by extension, the manufacture of exploration equipment.

Read more: 2015 Salary Survey

Maintenance and reliability tips and best practices from the maintenance and reliability coaches at Allied Reliability Group.
The One Voice for Manufacturing blog reports on federal public policy issues impacting the manufacturing sector. One Voice is a joint effort by the National Tooling and Machining...
The Society for Maintenance and Reliability Professionals an organization devoted...
Join this ongoing discussion of machine guarding topics, including solutions assessments, regulatory compliance, gap analysis...
IMS Research, recently acquired by IHS Inc., is a leading independent supplier of market research and consultancy to the global electronics industry.
Maintenance is not optional in manufacturing. It’s a profit center, driving productivity and uptime while reducing overall repair costs.
The Lachance on CMMS blog is about current maintenance topics. Blogger Paul Lachance is president and chief technology officer for Smartware Group.
This article collection contains several articles on the vital role of plant safety and offers advice on best practices.
This article collection contains several articles on the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and how it is transforming manufacturing.
This article collection contains several articles on strategic maintenance and understanding all the parts of your plant.
click me