LED revenue will peak this decade

The 2012 market size is projected to be about $10.9 billion, with $2.9 billion in lighting and $8.0 billion in all other applications.

01/03/2013


IMS Research (acquired by IHS)IMS Research (acquired by IHS Inc.) is forecasting world packaged LED revenue to decline in the second half of the decade according to the latest Packaged LED – World – 2012 Report. With many LED end markets already saturated, the lighting sector is the main driver of growth this decade. The 2012 market size is projected to be about $10.9 billion, with $2.9 billion in lighting and $8.0 billion in all other applications. By 2015 the market is forecast to reach $13.5 billion in 2015, with $5.8 billion in lighting (doubling in three years) and $7.7 billion in other areas (almost unchanged, and actually slightly less).

But there has been a much more important development within the lighting market itself, in that IMS Research expects shipments of LED lamps to remain relatively flat from 2015 onwards. IMS Research Analyst Stewart Shinkwin explained, “This is mainly due to fewer replacements being required each year due to the longer-lifetime of CFL and LED lamps reducing the overall market.” With price erosion set to remain in double digit figures, the LED lighting sector, as component packaged LED revenue, is forecast to contract towards the end of the decade. With no other markets expected to grow significantly, IMS Research expects the total packaged LED market to fall towards the end of the decade (as revenue) once the general lighting market has peaked.

There are, however, a number of factors that could change the outlook, notably if adoption is slower than predicted over the next three or four years. In this alternative scenario, growth would be slower initially but could be maintained for a longer period throughout the decade. Other important issues IMS Research considered in the long-term forecast are how low can the price of an LED really fall, and exactly how much the rate of lumens/watt improvements will slow in the second half of the decade as fundamental limits are reached.

The TV sector is the second largest market for packaged LEDs. This market is forecast to grow slightly from 2012 ($2.0 billion) to 2016 ($2.4 billion), as LED adoption rates increase throughout the time period just enough to overcome price erosion and the reduction of LEDs required for a given area. LCD panel shipments are also forecast to increase slightly, while there is also the trend towards larger screens, one which has been ongoing for a number of years. However the number of LEDs required for a given sized screen has also been decreasing faster than had been previously expected; for example in the first quarter of 2012 the low cost TVs which were introduced used half the number of LEDs for a given area, and although overall LED TV penetration increased as a result, average LEDs per LCD TV actually fell from 175 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 137 in the first quarter of 2012.  This trend cannot continue at the same rate forever and innovations may cause more LEDs to be used in some cases. However the overall trend is for a slow decline.



No comments
The Top Plant program honors outstanding manufacturing facilities in North America. View the 2013 Top Plant.
The Product of the Year program recognizes products newly released in the manufacturing industries.
The Leaders Under 40 program features outstanding young people who are making a difference in manufacturing. View the 2013 Leaders here.
The new control room: It's got all the bells and whistles - and alarms, too; Remote maintenance; Specifying VFDs
2014 forecast issue: To serve and to manufacture - Veterans will bring skill and discipline to the plant floor if we can find a way to get them there.
2013 Top Plant: Lincoln Electric Company, Cleveland, Ohio
Case Study Database

Case Study Database

Get more exposure for your case study by uploading it to the Plant Engineering case study database, where end-users can identify relevant solutions and explore what the experts are doing to effectively implement a variety of technology and productivity related projects.

These case studies provide examples of how knowledgeable solution providers have used technology, processes and people to create effective and successful implementations in real-world situations. Case studies can be completed by filling out a simple online form where you can outline the project title, abstract, and full story in 1500 words or less; upload photos, videos and a logo.

Click here to visit the Case Study Database and upload your case study.

Bring focus to PLC programming: 5 things to avoid in putting your system together; Managing the DCS upgrade; PLM upgrade: a step-by-step approach
Balancing the bagging triangle; PID tuning improves process efficiency; Standardizing control room HMIs
Commissioning electrical systems in mission critical facilities; Anticipating the Smart Grid; Mitigating arc flash hazards in medium-voltage switchgear; Comparing generator sizing software

Annual Salary Survey

Participate in the 2013 Salary Survey

In a year when manufacturing continued to lead the economic rebound, it makes sense that plant manager bonuses rebounded. Plant Engineering’s annual Salary Survey shows both wages and bonuses rose in 2012 after a retreat the year before.

Average salary across all job titles for plant floor management rose 3.5% to $95,446, and bonus compensation jumped to $15,162, a 4.2% increase from the 2010 level and double the 2011 total, which showed a sharp drop in bonus.

2012 Salary Survey Analysis

2012 Salary Survey Results

Maintenance and reliability tips and best practices from the maintenance and reliability coaches at Allied Reliability Group.
The One Voice for Manufacturing blog reports on federal public policy issues impacting the manufacturing sector. One Voice is a joint effort by the National Tooling and Machining...
The Society for Maintenance and Reliability Professionals an organization devoted...
Join this ongoing discussion of machine guarding topics, including solutions assessments, regulatory compliance, gap analysis...
IMS Research, recently acquired by IHS Inc., is a leading independent supplier of market research and consultancy to the global electronics industry.
Maintenance is not optional in manufacturing. It’s a profit center, driving productivity and uptime while reducing overall repair costs.
The Lachance on CMMS blog is about current maintenance topics. Blogger Paul Lachance is president and chief technology officer for Smartware Group.