Ignoring China, how successful have smart card national ID schemes really been? And what does the future hold?

The Chinese Citizen ID project was so vast compared to anything else that’s been occurring in this market, it’s been difficult for observers to gauge just how successful other national ID projects have been and to what extent the recession and the recovery really impacted the wider market.

09/07/2011


IMS research: excellence in market intelligneceFor the last few years it’s been difficult to talk about smart card-based national ID projects without China blurring the picture. The Chinese Citizen ID project was so vast compared to anything else that’s been occurring in this market, it’s been difficult for observers to gauge just how successful other national ID projects have been and to what extent the recession and the recovery really impacted the wider market.

We continually assess this at IMS Research, tracking over 150 individual government/healthcare projects. However, I’ve recently had to give it extra attention as we published our latest market report on this topic “Electronic Government and Healthcare ID Cards – World – 2011”.

With the exception of China large smart card-based national ID projects have been seen in countries such as Spain, Malaysia, Thailand, Egypt, Belgium, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Portugal. Together, these and a number of other countries, have rolled out more than 250 million smart card-based national ID cards. As I say though, this relatively small compared to the billion or so Citizen ID cards rolled out in China! The issue is, unless you’re Chinese, the China project may as well have not existed, as all the card and IC contracts went to Chinese suppliers.  

Unfortunately, the recession and continued government spending cuts have resulted in this market (excluding China) struggling during the last three years with unit shipments hovering around the same sub-50 million per annum level.

As I started the research for this report I was concerned that this could be a long term problem for the industry. However, after spending the last five months digging into the details of future projects, I ended up with a much more positive view.

This much more positive view was the direct result of what IMS Research has concluded will happen in Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Germany and Italy. All are countries with big populations, and all are planning on rolling out large national ID card schemes using smart card technology.  Just these eight countries alone are forecast to account for approaching 900 million smart cards installed by the end of 2016…assuming all projects go ahead as planned.

However, perhaps this is a dangerous assumption!

To be honest, I have applied a certain level of pessimism in our forecasts and have already assumed that projects will suffer delays. However, as we know here in the UK, projects can quite easily be cancelled with a change in government.

Within our research we have attempted to “class” projects on whether they are high, medium or low risk. High risk being those that we believe there is a chance for significant delay or cancellation.  The results did help reinforce my more positive view on the future for this market. If I just count what we have classed as the “low risk” projects, the last three years of stagnation will soon be a distant memory.



No comments
The Top Plant program honors outstanding manufacturing facilities in North America. View the 2015 Top Plant.
The Product of the Year program recognizes products newly released in the manufacturing industries.
The Engineering Leaders Under 40 program identifies and gives recognition to young engineers who...
2016 Engineering Leaders Under 40; Future vision: Where is manufacturing headed?; Electrical distribution, redefined
Strategic outsourcing delivers efficiency; Sleeve bearing clearance; Causes of water hammer; Improve air quality; Maintenance safety; GAMS preview
World-class maintenance: The three keys to success - Deploy people, process and technology; 2016 Lubrication Guide; Why hydraulic systems get hot
Flexible offshore fire protection; Big Data's impact on operations; Bridging the skills gap; Identifying security risks
The digital oilfield: Utilizing Big Data can yield big savings; Virtualization a real solution; Tracking SIS performance
Getting to the bottom of subsea repairs: Older pipelines need more attention, and operators need a repair strategy; OTC preview; Offshore production difficult - and crucial
Applying network redundancy; Overcoming loop tuning challenges; PID control and networks
Driving motor efficiency; Preventing arc flash in mission critical facilities; Integrating alternative power and existing electrical systems
Package boilers; Natural gas infrared heating; Thermal treasure; Standby generation; Natural gas supports green efforts

Annual Salary Survey

Before the calendar turned, 2016 already had the makings of a pivotal year for manufacturing, and for the world.

There were the big events for the year, including the United States as Partner Country at Hannover Messe in April and the 2016 International Manufacturing Technology Show in Chicago in September. There's also the matter of the U.S. presidential elections in November, which promise to shape policy in manufacturing for years to come.

But the year started with global economic turmoil, as a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing triggered a worldwide stock hiccup that sent values plummeting. The continued plunge in world oil prices has resulted in a slowdown in exploration and, by extension, the manufacture of exploration equipment.

Read more: 2015 Salary Survey

Maintenance and reliability tips and best practices from the maintenance and reliability coaches at Allied Reliability Group.
The One Voice for Manufacturing blog reports on federal public policy issues impacting the manufacturing sector. One Voice is a joint effort by the National Tooling and Machining...
The Society for Maintenance and Reliability Professionals an organization devoted...
Join this ongoing discussion of machine guarding topics, including solutions assessments, regulatory compliance, gap analysis...
IMS Research, recently acquired by IHS Inc., is a leading independent supplier of market research and consultancy to the global electronics industry.
Maintenance is not optional in manufacturing. It’s a profit center, driving productivity and uptime while reducing overall repair costs.
The Lachance on CMMS blog is about current maintenance topics. Blogger Paul Lachance is president and chief technology officer for Smartware Group.
This article collection contains several articles on the vital role that compressed air plays in manufacturing plants.
This article collection contains several articles on the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and how it is transforming manufacturing.
This article collection contains several articles on strategic maintenance and understanding all the parts of your plant.
click me