LED revenue will peak this decade

The 2012 market size is projected to be about $10.9 billion, with $2.9 billion in lighting and $8.0 billion in all other applications.


IMS Research (acquired by IHS)IMS Research (acquired by IHS Inc.) is forecasting world packaged LED revenue to decline in the second half of the decade according to the latest Packaged LED – World – 2012 Report. With many LED end markets already saturated, the lighting sector is the main driver of growth this decade. The 2012 market size is projected to be about $10.9 billion, with $2.9 billion in lighting and $8.0 billion in all other applications. By 2015 the market is forecast to reach $13.5 billion in 2015, with $5.8 billion in lighting (doubling in three years) and $7.7 billion in other areas (almost unchanged, and actually slightly less).

But there has been a much more important development within the lighting market itself, in that IMS Research expects shipments of LED lamps to remain relatively flat from 2015 onwards. IMS Research Analyst Stewart Shinkwin explained, “This is mainly due to fewer replacements being required each year due to the longer-lifetime of CFL and LED lamps reducing the overall market.” With price erosion set to remain in double digit figures, the LED lighting sector, as component packaged LED revenue, is forecast to contract towards the end of the decade. With no other markets expected to grow significantly, IMS Research expects the total packaged LED market to fall towards the end of the decade (as revenue) once the general lighting market has peaked.

There are, however, a number of factors that could change the outlook, notably if adoption is slower than predicted over the next three or four years. In this alternative scenario, growth would be slower initially but could be maintained for a longer period throughout the decade. Other important issues IMS Research considered in the long-term forecast are how low can the price of an LED really fall, and exactly how much the rate of lumens/watt improvements will slow in the second half of the decade as fundamental limits are reached.

The TV sector is the second largest market for packaged LEDs. This market is forecast to grow slightly from 2012 ($2.0 billion) to 2016 ($2.4 billion), as LED adoption rates increase throughout the time period just enough to overcome price erosion and the reduction of LEDs required for a given area. LCD panel shipments are also forecast to increase slightly, while there is also the trend towards larger screens, one which has been ongoing for a number of years. However the number of LEDs required for a given sized screen has also been decreasing faster than had been previously expected; for example in the first quarter of 2012 the low cost TVs which were introduced used half the number of LEDs for a given area, and although overall LED TV penetration increased as a result, average LEDs per LCD TV actually fell from 175 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 137 in the first quarter of 2012.  This trend cannot continue at the same rate forever and innovations may cause more LEDs to be used in some cases. However the overall trend is for a slow decline.

No comments
The Top Plant program honors outstanding manufacturing facilities in North America. View the 2013 Top Plant.
The Product of the Year program recognizes products newly released in the manufacturing industries.
The Engineering Leaders Under 40 program identifies and gives recognition to young engineers who...
A cool solution: Collaboration, chemistry leads to foundry coat product development; See the 2015 Product of the Year Finalists
Raising the standard: What's new with NFPA 70E; A global view of manufacturing; Maintenance data; Fit bearings properly
Sister act: Building on their father's legacy, a new generation moves Bales Metal Surface Solutions forward; Meet the 2015 Engineering Leaders Under 40
Cyber security cost-efficient for industrial control systems; Extracting full value from operational data; Managing cyber security risks
Drilling for Big Data: Managing the flow of information; Big data drilldown series: Challenge and opportunity; OT to IT: Creating a circle of improvement; Industry loses best workers, again
Pipeline vulnerabilities? Securing hydrocarbon transit; Predictive analytics hit the mainstream; Dirty pipelines decrease flow, production—pig your line; Ensuring pipeline physical and cyber security
Upgrading secondary control systems; Keeping enclosures conditioned; Diagnostics increase equipment uptime; Mechatronics simplifies machine design
Designing positive-energy buildings; Ensuring power quality; Complying with NFPA 110; Minimizing arc flash hazards
Building high availability into industrial computers; Of key metrics and myth busting; The truth about five common VFD myths

Annual Salary Survey

After almost a decade of uncertainty, the confidence of plant floor managers is soaring. Even with a number of challenges and while implementing new technologies, there is a renewed sense of optimism among plant managers about their business and their future.

The respondents to the 2014 Plant Engineering Salary Survey come from throughout the U.S. and serve a variety of industries, but they are uniform in their optimism about manufacturing. This year’s survey found 79% consider manufacturing a secure career. That’s up from 75% in 2013 and significantly higher than the 63% figure when Plant Engineering first started asking that question a decade ago.

Read more: 2014 Salary Survey: Confidence rises amid the challenges

Maintenance and reliability tips and best practices from the maintenance and reliability coaches at Allied Reliability Group.
The One Voice for Manufacturing blog reports on federal public policy issues impacting the manufacturing sector. One Voice is a joint effort by the National Tooling and Machining...
The Society for Maintenance and Reliability Professionals an organization devoted...
Join this ongoing discussion of machine guarding topics, including solutions assessments, regulatory compliance, gap analysis...
IMS Research, recently acquired by IHS Inc., is a leading independent supplier of market research and consultancy to the global electronics industry.
Maintenance is not optional in manufacturing. It’s a profit center, driving productivity and uptime while reducing overall repair costs.
The Lachance on CMMS blog is about current maintenance topics. Blogger Paul Lachance is president and chief technology officer for Smartware Group.