LED revenue will peak this decade

The 2012 market size is projected to be about $10.9 billion, with $2.9 billion in lighting and $8.0 billion in all other applications.

01/03/2013


IMS Research (acquired by IHS)IMS Research (acquired by IHS Inc.) is forecasting world packaged LED revenue to decline in the second half of the decade according to the latest Packaged LED – World – 2012 Report. With many LED end markets already saturated, the lighting sector is the main driver of growth this decade. The 2012 market size is projected to be about $10.9 billion, with $2.9 billion in lighting and $8.0 billion in all other applications. By 2015 the market is forecast to reach $13.5 billion in 2015, with $5.8 billion in lighting (doubling in three years) and $7.7 billion in other areas (almost unchanged, and actually slightly less).

But there has been a much more important development within the lighting market itself, in that IMS Research expects shipments of LED lamps to remain relatively flat from 2015 onwards. IMS Research Analyst Stewart Shinkwin explained, “This is mainly due to fewer replacements being required each year due to the longer-lifetime of CFL and LED lamps reducing the overall market.” With price erosion set to remain in double digit figures, the LED lighting sector, as component packaged LED revenue, is forecast to contract towards the end of the decade. With no other markets expected to grow significantly, IMS Research expects the total packaged LED market to fall towards the end of the decade (as revenue) once the general lighting market has peaked.

There are, however, a number of factors that could change the outlook, notably if adoption is slower than predicted over the next three or four years. In this alternative scenario, growth would be slower initially but could be maintained for a longer period throughout the decade. Other important issues IMS Research considered in the long-term forecast are how low can the price of an LED really fall, and exactly how much the rate of lumens/watt improvements will slow in the second half of the decade as fundamental limits are reached.

The TV sector is the second largest market for packaged LEDs. This market is forecast to grow slightly from 2012 ($2.0 billion) to 2016 ($2.4 billion), as LED adoption rates increase throughout the time period just enough to overcome price erosion and the reduction of LEDs required for a given area. LCD panel shipments are also forecast to increase slightly, while there is also the trend towards larger screens, one which has been ongoing for a number of years. However the number of LEDs required for a given sized screen has also been decreasing faster than had been previously expected; for example in the first quarter of 2012 the low cost TVs which were introduced used half the number of LEDs for a given area, and although overall LED TV penetration increased as a result, average LEDs per LCD TV actually fell from 175 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 137 in the first quarter of 2012.  This trend cannot continue at the same rate forever and innovations may cause more LEDs to be used in some cases. However the overall trend is for a slow decline.



No comments
The Top Plant program honors outstanding manufacturing facilities in North America. View the 2015 Top Plant.
The Product of the Year program recognizes products newly released in the manufacturing industries.
The Engineering Leaders Under 40 program identifies and gives recognition to young engineers who...
Your leaks start here: Take a disciplined approach with your hydraulic system; U.S. presence at Hannover Messe a rousing success
Hannover Messe 2016: Taking hold of the future - Partner Country status spotlights U.S. manufacturing; Honoring manufacturing excellence: The 2015 Product of the Year Winners
Inside IIoT: How technology, strategy can improve your operation; Dry media or web scrubber?; Six steps to design a PM program
Getting to the bottom of subsea repairs: Older pipelines need more attention, and operators need a repair strategy; OTC preview; Offshore production difficult - and crucial
Digital oilfields: Integrated HMI/SCADA systems enable smarter data acquisition; Real-world impact of simulation; Electric actuator technology prospers in production fields
Special report: U.S. natural gas; LNG transport technologies evolve to meet market demand; Understanding new methane regulations; Predictive maintenance for gas pipeline compressors
Warehouse winter comfort: The HTHV solution; Cooling with natural gas; Plastics industry booming
Managing automation upgrades, retrofits; Making technical, business sense; Ensuring network cyber security
Designing generator systems; Using online commissioning tools; Selective coordination best practices

Annual Salary Survey

Before the calendar turned, 2016 already had the makings of a pivotal year for manufacturing, and for the world.

There were the big events for the year, including the United States as Partner Country at Hannover Messe in April and the 2016 International Manufacturing Technology Show in Chicago in September. There's also the matter of the U.S. presidential elections in November, which promise to shape policy in manufacturing for years to come.

But the year started with global economic turmoil, as a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing triggered a worldwide stock hiccup that sent values plummeting. The continued plunge in world oil prices has resulted in a slowdown in exploration and, by extension, the manufacture of exploration equipment.

Read more: 2015 Salary Survey

Maintenance and reliability tips and best practices from the maintenance and reliability coaches at Allied Reliability Group.
The One Voice for Manufacturing blog reports on federal public policy issues impacting the manufacturing sector. One Voice is a joint effort by the National Tooling and Machining...
The Society for Maintenance and Reliability Professionals an organization devoted...
Join this ongoing discussion of machine guarding topics, including solutions assessments, regulatory compliance, gap analysis...
IMS Research, recently acquired by IHS Inc., is a leading independent supplier of market research and consultancy to the global electronics industry.
Maintenance is not optional in manufacturing. It’s a profit center, driving productivity and uptime while reducing overall repair costs.
The Lachance on CMMS blog is about current maintenance topics. Blogger Paul Lachance is president and chief technology officer for Smartware Group.
This article collection contains several articles on the vital role that compressed air plays in manufacturing plants.
This article collection contains several articles on the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and how it is transforming manufacturing.
This article collection contains several articles on strategic maintenance and understanding all the parts of your plant.
click me