Improved margins for supplies
Staff -- Plant Engineering, 10/1/2003
Margins improved for nine industries that make factory operating materials and supplies and held steady for seven others. But plant engineers still face a challenging environment for buying supplies.
Sporting a margin grade of F (see table, opposite), the surface active agents (SIC 2843) industry spends $57.42 on direct manufacturing for $100 worth of product, which is $2.37 above average. Producers will close half the profitability gap by the end of the 2003. The supplier's best argument may be that a chemicals-driven cost increase of 8.3% between February '02 and May '03 was not redressed and led to a near-record low level of manufacturing-related margins.
The fabricated plate work industry also has an F grade. An analysis of margins suggests that suppliers have the cost justification for increasing prices by 1.4%. U.S. demand for metal plate work will see a dramatic improvement in 2004 as end-markets growth hits a year-over-year rate of 6.1% in 2004:Q3. Stronger end-markets won't translate into stronger price hikes. Over the last few years, we've seen a disconnect between demand and prices thanks to competition from foreign suppliers. Tags for fabricated plate work will edge ahead 0.8% in 2004.
Ball and roller bearings manufacturers have done a better job stemming margin losses, as evidenced by their average C margin grade. In July 2003, the cost of making a unit of output in SIC 3562 fell 0.6% with the bulk of the decline due to a 1.5% drop in wage rates paid to factory workers. Producers generated additional savings from U.S.-made steel inputs. Cost savings did not translate into lower output prices in July. Indeed, buyers won't see any price relief ahead. A battle between prices and costs will rage in the U.S. bearings industry. From 2003:Q4 to 2004:Q4 industry tags will rise 1.7% while costs will grow 1.3%.
| Average Product Prices¹ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending... | Direct Mfg. Costs² and Margins Grade | Growth in U.S. End Markets³ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending... | |||||
| Industry | SIC | April 03 | July 03 | Costs are... | Grade | April 03 | July 03 |
| Wood Pallets and Skids | 2448 | -0.97 | 0.48 | rising | F- | -0.25 | -0.31 |
| Polishes and Sanitation Goods | 2842 | -0.23 | 0.15 | stable | F | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| Surface Active Agents | 2843 | -1.05 | -0.26 | stable | F | 0.64 | 0.23 |
| Adhesives and Sealants | 2891 | 0.02 | 0.08 | falling | F | 2.23 | 1.34 |
| Lubricating Oils and Greases | 2992 | 0.93 | 1.59 | stable | A | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| Rubber and Plastics Hose and Belting | 3052 | 0.83 | 1.66 | stable | D | 1.83 | 1.46 |
| Abrasive Products | 3291 | 0.06 | 0.40 | stable | D | 3.15 | 3.43 |
| Steel Wire and Related Products | 3315 | 1.21 | 1.45 | stable | D | -1.85 | -1.03 |
| Copper Rolling and Drawing | 3351 | -2.23 | -2.28 | rising | F | -2.04 | -1.81 |
| Nonferrous Wire Drawing and Insulating | 3357 | -3.48 | -2.17 | stable | F | 5.01 | 5.68 |
| Heating Equipment, except Electric | 3433 | 0.81 | 1.07 | stable | C | -1.62 | -0.82 |
| Fabricated Plate Work, Boiler Shops | 3443 | 1.13 | 0.99 | stable | F | -3.15 | -2.05 |
| Bolts, Nuts, Rivets and Washers | 3452 | 0.14 | 0.11 | stable | F | 5.66 | 6.10 |
| Industrial Valves | 3491 | 1.31 | 1.38 | stable | A | -2.07 | -1.59 |
| Fluid Power Valves and Hose Fittings | 3492 | 1.08 | 1.16 | stable | B | -2.07 | -1.59 |
| Other Valves and Pipe Fittings | 3494 | 0.76 | 1.71 | stable | C | -2.07 | -1.59 |
| Miscellaneous Fabricated Wire Products | 3496 | -0.17 | -0.24 | stable | F | -0.29 | -0.09 |
| Fabricated Pipe and Fittings | 3498 | 0.38 | 0.87 | stable | D | -2.07 | -1.59 |
| Ball and Roller Bearings | 3562 | 0.87 | 1.07 | falling | C | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| NC means data could not be computed. ¹ Average product price changes are calculated from the producer price index for each 4-digit SIC (standard industrial classification) industry from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. ² Analyses of each industry's direct manufacturing cost changes are from Thinking Cap Solutions, Inc.'s proprietary Industry Cost Escalation (ICE) model. The "grade" indicates that recent price/cost changes have produced record high (A+) margins to average margins (C) to record low (F-) margins for the average producer in an industry. Grades of A to A+ mean plant engineers may be able to strike a better bargain with suppliers and better control plant costs. ³ Growth in U.S. end markets data are from the ICE model and are estimates of output for the domestic end markets which purchase a given industry's products. All data prepared and presented by Thinking Cap Solutions, Inc., Port Angeles, WA (telephone: 360-452-6159; e-mail: ebaatz@ice-alert.com). |
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