Inflation mismatch could lead to higher prices
Staff -- Plant Engineering, 2/1/2003
In November 2002, prices for plant construction and maintenance supplies fell 0.1%, while costs to manufacture those supplies rose 0.7%. This inflation mismatch means suppliers are facing tighter margins now and buyers could face higher prices ahead.
Consider the sheet metal work (SIC 3444) industry. Higher raw materials and labor spending pushed the cost of manufacturing a unit of output in the sheet metal work industry up 0.7% in November. The rise marks the fourth increase of more than 0.5% in the last 5 months and it had a significant bottom-line impact. Since midsummer, margins in SIC 3444 have shed $1.92 per $100 of product sold.
Cost control problems in SIC 3444 stem from the imposition of steel tariffs earlier this year. Over the last 9 months, per-unit spending on raw materials has increased 5.3% while industry product prices have been limited to a gain of just 1.4%. The single biggest bottom-line squeeze has come from steel sheet and strip where per-unit costs are up a whopping 17.9%.
Meanwhile, deflation continues to hold sway over the pricing habits of sawmill operators. Here industry tags fell for the sixth time in 7 months, down 0.8% in November. Fortunately for producers, a 0.4% drop in per-unit manufacturing costs helped limit the bottom-line damage from weak prices.
Thinking Cap Solutions projects prices for products made in SIC 2421 will rise an average of 3.40% in 2003. All of this will fall to the bottom line thanks to a 0.40% dip in the cost of making a unit of industry output. By 2003:Q4, industry margins will be $4.30 (per $100 of product sold) above their 2002:Q4 level. In 2004, prices will be better behaved, gaining just 0.20%.
| Industry | SIC | Average Product Prices¹ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending... Aug 02 | Average Product Prices¹ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending... Nov 02 | Direct Mfg. Costs² and Margins Grade Costs are... | Direct Mfg. Costs² and Margins Grade Grade | Growth in U.S. End Markets ³ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending... Aug 02 | Growth in U.S. End Markets ³ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending... Nov 02 |
| General Sawmills and Planing Mills | 2421 | -1.80 | -1.60 | stable | F | -1.49 | -0.52 |
| Millwork | 2431 | 1.22 | 0.62 | stable | B | -2.99 | -2.29 |
| Hardwood Veneer and Plywood | 2435 | 0.37 | 0.05 | stable | C | -2.38 | -1.25 |
| Softwood Veneer and Plywood | 2436 | -2.40 | -3.16 | falling | D | -2.38 | -1.25 |
| Metal Partitions and Fixtures | 2542 | -0.59 | -0.73 | stable | F- | -1.01 | -1.91 |
| Paints and Allied Products | 2851 | 1.64 | 1.59 | rising | C | -2.14 | -0.27 |
| Flat Glass | 3211 | -2.37 | -2.57 | stable | F- | 1.24 | 4.44 |
| Other Structural Clay Products | 3259 | 3.96 | 4.12 | stable | A | -2.89 | -2.29 |
| Gypsum Products | 3275 | 3.49 | 7.53 | stable | D | -2.72 | -2.41 |
| Mineral Wool | 3296 | 1.40 | 0.85 | stable | D | -3.58 | -1.51 |
| Steel Pipe and Tubes | 3317 | -0.62 | 2.41 | rising | B | na | na |
| Plumbing Fittings and Brass Goods | 3432 | -0.79 | -0.26 | stable | D | -3.37 | -2.70 |
| Metal Doors, Sash and Trim | 3442 | 0.72 | 0.58 | rising | C | -2.80 | -2.56 |
| Sheet Metal Work | 3444 | 0.04 | 0.74 | rising | F | -1.00 | 1.78 |
| Refrigeration and Heating Equipment | 3585 | 0.46 | 0.43 | stable | F | -2.05 | -0.39 |
| Current-Carrying Wiring Devices | 3643 | -1.13 | -0.60 | stable | F- | -2.24 | -0.27 |
| Noncurrent-Carrying Wiring Devices | 3644 | 1.68 | 1.34 | stable | D | -2.24 | -0.27 |
| Commercial Lighting Fixtures | 3646 | -0.23 | -0.32 | stable | F- | -1.95 | -1.62 |
| Environmental Controls | 3822 | 0.05 | 0.06 | stable | D | -2.44 | -2.01 |
| ¹ Average product price changes are calculated from the producer price index for each 4-digit SIC (standard industrial classification) industry from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
² Analyses of each industry's direct manufacturing cost changes are from Thinking Cap Solutions, Inc.'s proprietary Industry Cost Escalation (ICE) model. The "grade" indicates that recent price/cost changes have produced record high (A+) margins to average margins (C) to record low (F-) margins for the average producer in an industry. Grades of A to A+ mean plant engineers may be able to strike a better bargain with suppliers and better control plant costs. ³ Growth in U.S. end markets data are from the ICE model and are estimates of output for the domestic end markets which purchase a given industry's products. All data prepared and presented by Thinking Cap Solutions, Inc., Port Angeles, WA (telephone: 360-452-6159; e-mail: ebaatz@ice-alert.com). |
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