Cost Trends
Buyers keep watchful eye on inflation
Staff -- Plant Engineering, 9/1/2002
Between March and June, prices for many key commodities have been on the rebound. The result: inflation has started to rear its ugly head, creating cost control concerns for many industries that make the equipment and tools that plant engineers use.
For example, with prices for steel heating up, makers of materials handling equipment are beginning to experience an upturn in manufacturing costs. Although it's unlikely higher costs translated into higher product prices over the summer months, buyers should be on guard this autumn. Since the announcement of tariffs on imported steel, materials handling industries have experienced erosion in margins that can be traced directly to increased spending on steel. In three of these industries, margin losses are approaching $1 for each $100 of product sold.
Makers of conveyors and conveying equipment (SIC 3535) face the most serious inflation challenge. Since March, per-unit spending on manufacturing has increased 0.77% while industry product prices have tumbled 0.87%. This escalation disparity has lowered margins by 96 cents for each $100 of product sold. About 4/5 of this margin loss can be attributed to an increase in raw materials costs. A roundup of 3-month cost increases for key inputs shows: carbon sheet and strip up 9.47%; carbon steel bars up 2.11%; and other carbon steel shapes up 3.67%. While all of this is clearly bad news for producers, higher costs should play a limited role in negotiations. Thinking Cap Solutions' cost model calculates that margins in SIC 3535 remain above normal. The same can be said for margins in the elevator (SIC 3534) and hoist, crane and monorail (SIC 3536) industries. Makers of industrial lift trucks (SIC 3537), on the other hand, face below-average margins.
| Average Product Prices¹ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending… | Direct Mfg. Costs² and Margins Grade | Growth in U.S. End Markets³ Change, % During 12-Mo Ending… | |||||
| Industry | SIC | Mar 02 | June 02 | Costs are... | Grade | Mar 02 | June 02 |
| Other Hand and Edge Tools | 3423 | 3.58 | 3.32 | rising | B | -2.99 | -4.32 |
| Hand Saws and Saw Blades | 3425 | -0.70 | -0.50 | rising | D | -1.96 | -1.98 |
| Other Hardware | 3429 | 1.77 | 1.56 | rising | B | -2.91 | -3.20 |
| Other Power Transmission Equipment | 3568 | 1.88 | 1.88 | rising | A | -7.14 | -5.93 |
| Conveyors and Conveying Equipment | 3535 | 1.50 | 1.24 | stable | B | -5.47 | -6.86 |
| Hoists, Cranes and Monorails | 3536 | 1.32 | 0.92 | stable | A | -2.71 | -4.21 |
| Industrial Trucks and Tractors | 3537 | 0.89 | 0.20 | stable | D | -5.29 | -6.52 |
| Metal-Cutting Machine Tools | 3541 | -3.64 | -5.71 | stable | F- | -8.77 | -7.73 |
| Machine Tool Accessories | 3545 | 1.85 | 1.55 | stable | D | -6.42 | -4.79 |
| Power Driven Hand Tools | 3546 | 1.98 | 1.26 | stable | D | -1.02 | -1.55 |
| Welding Apparatus | 3548 | 1.88 | 1.78 | rising | B | -3.94 | -2.60 |
| Pumps and Pumping Equipment | 3561 | 2.72 | 3.06 | stable | A | -3.73 | -3.73 |
| Air and Gas Compressors | 3563 | 2.33 | 2.08 | stable | A | -3.73 | -3.73 |
| Speed Changers, Drives and Gears | 3566 | 1.79 | 1.57 | stable | B | -7.14 | -5.93 |
| Transformers | 3612 | -1.56 | -1.60 | stable | F | -8.34 | -6.97 |
| Motors and Generators | 3621 | 0.31 | 0.07 | rising | F | -4.31 | -3.04 |
| Process Control Instruments | 3823 | 1.48 | 1.37 | stable | B | -2.99 | -1.81 |
| Fluid Meters and Counting Devices | 3824 | 0.48 | 0.11 | stable | C | -2.99 | -1.81 |
| Instruments to Measure Electricity | 3825 | 0.70 | 0.90 | stable | D | -8.48 | -6.68 |
| ¹ Average product price changes are calculated from the producer price index for each 4-digit SIC (standard industrial classification) industry from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. ² Analyses of each industry's direct manufacturing cost changes are from Thinking Cap Solutions, Inc.'s proprietary Industry Cost Escalation (ICE) model. The "grade" indicates that recent price/cost changes have produced record high (A+) margins to average margins (C) to record low (F-) margins for the average producer in an industry. Grades of A to A+ mean plant engineers may be able to strike a better bargain with suppliers and better control plant costs. ³ Growth in U.S. end markets data are from the ICE model and are estimates of output for the domestic end markets which purchase a given industry's products. All data prepared and presented by Thinking Cap Solutions, Inc., Port Angeles, WA (telephone: 360-452-6159; e-mail: ebaatz@ice-alert.com). |
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