Don't slip on lubricating oils
Staff -- Plant Engineering, 4/1/2002
Plant engineers who buy operating materials and supplies need to watch two products carefully. Three months ago, the lubricating oils and greases (SIC 2992) industry and the wood pallets and skids (SIC 2448) industry were registering declines — and in the case of oils, rapid declines in their average production costs. And with prices still rising rapidly, the negotiation position favored buyers to a large degree.
Now, production cost trends have completely flipped around. In the lubricating oils industry, average costs of production rose 1.1% between December '01 and January '02. With prices falling 0.4%, the industry took an 89-cent margin loss for every $100 of product sold.
In the wood pallets industry, average costs of production increased 1.5% over the same December-to-January period while product prices for pallets dropped 0.4%. The result: for every $100 worth of pallets sold, U.S. manufacturers saw the cost/price trends nibble $1.29 from margins.
These kinds of trends mean plant engineers who are buying these products in bulk may be finding their once strong negotiation position slipping a bit. The lubricating oils industry, however, did a great job of capturing the margin enhancements from sharp drops in oil-related costs over the past few years. That means buyers can argue that cost cuts from previous years have yet to be passed along to buyers. To restore margins in the lubricating oils industry back to its 5-year average level would require a 13.6% price drop.
Buyers of wood pallets can argue that a 3.2% price cut is needed before pallet manufacturers see their margins return to 5-year average levels. Beware, however: returning margins to January '01 levels actually requires a 0.7% price hike.
| Industry | SIC | Average Product Prices¹ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending...Oct 01 | Average Product Prices¹ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending...Jan 02 | Direct Mfg. Costs² and Margins Grade Costs are... | Direct Mfg. Costs² and Margins Grade Costs are... Grade | Growth in U.S. End Markets³ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending...Oct 01 | Growth in U.S. End Markets³ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending...Jan 02 |
| Wood Pallets and Skids | 2448 | 0.51 | 0.42 | rising | A | -4.48 | -5.56 |
| Polishes and Sanitation Goods | 2842 | 0.95 | 0.61 | stable | B | 1.96 | 1.95 |
| Surface Active Agents | 2843 | 2.67 | 1.90 | stable | B | -2.91 | -2.81 |
| Adhesives and Sealants | 2891 | 3.40 | 3.24 | falling | A | -2.16 | -4.13 |
| Lubricating Oils and Greases | 2992 | 7.24 | 5.75 | rising | A | -0.96 | -3.14 |
| Rubber and Plastics Hose & Belting | 3052 | 3.20 | 3.67 | stable | A | -3.51 | -4.19 |
| Abrasive Products | 3291 | 0.07 | 0.09 | stable | D | -3.18 | -6.21 |
| Steel Wire and Related Products | 3315 | -1.47 | -1.92 | stable | F | 1.82 | 1.58 |
| Copper Rolling and Drawing | 3351 | -2.61 | -5.57 | rising | D | 0.23 | -6.89 |
| Nonferrous Wire Drawing & Insulating | 3357 | -0.87 | -3.03 | stable | B | 2.53 | -4.28 |
| Heating Equipment, except Electric | 3433 | 1.25 | 1.23 | stable | A+ | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| Fabricated Plate Work, Boiler Shops | 3443 | 1.00 | 0.92 | stable | A | -1.90 | -4.20 |
| Bolts, Nuts, Rivets and Washers | 3452 | 0.10 | 0.14 | stable | C | 2.15 | 1.85 |
| Industrial Valves | 3491 | 1.74 | 1.60 | stable | B | 0.00 | -0.98 |
| Fluid Power Valves and Hose Fittings | 3492 | 1.33 | 1.42 | stable | A | 0.00 | -0.98 |
| Other Valves and Pipe Fittings | 3494 | 3.93 | 4.39 | stable | A | 0.00 | -0.98 |
| Miscellaneous Fabricated Wire Prod. | 3496 | 0.28 | 0.27 | stable | B | -1.79 | -3.35 |
| Fabricated Pipe and Fittings | 3498 | 1.32 | 0.66 | stable | A | 0.00 | -0.98 |
| Ball and Roller Bearings | 3562 | 0.94 | 0.43 | stable | B | -3.10 | -4.49 |
| ¹Average product price changes are calculated from the producer price index for each 4-digit SIC (standard industrial classification) industry from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. ² Analyses of each industry's direct manufacturing cost changes are from Thinking Cap Solutions, Inc.'s proprietary Industry Cost Escalation (ICE) model. The "grade" indicates that recent price/cost changes have produced record high (A+) margins to average margins (C) to record low (F-) margins for the average producer in an industry. Grades of A to A+ mean plant engineers may be able to strike a better bargain with suppliers and better control plant costs. ³ Growth in U.S. end markets data are from the ICE model and are estimates of output for the domestic end markets which purchase a given industry's products. All data prepared and presented by Thinking Cap Solutions, Inc., Port Angeles, WA (telephone: 360-452-6159; e-mail: ebaatz@ice-alert.com). | |||||||
