Some prices finally fall
Staff -- Plant Engineering, 1/1/2002
Regular readers of this column may notice that the demand data in the Plant Engineering operating materials and supplies table have been revised downward. In some cases, the revisions are significant. For example, in the 12 months ending July 2001, end-market demand for lubricating oils was revised from 7.7% to 4.8%. Demand for abrasive products like grinding wheels was revised from 12.5% to 7.4% and end-market growth for adhesives and sealants was adjusted from 11% to 6.4% over the same 12-month period.
The growth in U.S. end-markets that we report is based on industrial production data from the Federal Reserve Board. The updated measures reflect the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series.
Overall, industrial output is now reported to have increased at a slower rate in 1999 and 2000 than previously reported. Despite the downward revision, the general contour is the same as in the earlier estimates. After having picked up in the second half of 1999 and after having posted rapid gains in the first half of 2000, increases in industrial output abated noticeably at mid-year. According to the revised data, however, industrial output was weaker in the second half of 2000 than in the earlier estimates. In 2001, industrial production declined at about 51/2 percent at an annual rate.
With these revisions impacting factory operating materials and supplies, end-market growth now are slowing or falling more rapidly in our near-term forecasts. Prices for factory operating supplies, meanwhile, will show even stronger deflationary trends in the months ahead.
| Industry | SIC | Average Product Prices¹ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending... July 01 | Average Product Prices¹ Change, %, During 12-Mo Ending...Oct 01 | Direct Mfg. Costs² and Margins Grade Costs are... | Direct Mfg. Costs² and Margins Grade Grade | Growth in U.S. End Markets³ Change, % During 12-Mo Endng...July 01 | Growth in U.S. End Markets³ Change, % During 12-Mo Endng...Oct 01 |
| Wood pallets and skids | 2448 | 0.54 | 0.56 | Falling | A+ | -1.92 | -4.17 |
| Polishes and sanitation goods | 2842 | 1.00 | 0.93 | Falling | B | 2.00 | 1.62 |
| Surface active agents | 2843 | 2.84 | 2.69 | Falling | C | -3.12 | -3.95 |
| Adhesives and sealants | 2891 | 3.04 | 3.36 | Falling | B | 6.39 | 1.55 |
| Lubricating oils and greases | 2992 | 7.70 | 7.29 | Falling Fast | B | 4.78 | 1.19 |
| Rubber and plastics hose and belting | 3052 | 2.31 | 3.20 | Stable | A | 0.95 | -2.00 |
| Abrasive products | 3291 | -0.09 | 0.09 | Stable | D | 7.36 | 1.08 |
| Steel wire and related products | 3315 | -1.07 | -1.42 | Stable | F | 3.22 | 1.84 |
| Copper rolling and drawing | 3351 | 1.07 | -2.52 | Falling | C | 21.21 | 8.55 |
| Nonferrous wire drawing and insulating | 3357 | 1.84 | -0.72 | Falling | B | 22.28 | 10.20 |
| Heating equipment, except electric | 3433 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Stable | A | 1.47 | 0.49 |
| Fabricated plate work, boiler shops | 3443 | 1.06 | 1.01 | Falling | A | 2.78 | -0.65 |
| Bolts, nuts, rivets and washers | 3452 | 0.06 | 0.07 | Falling | C | 3.48 | 2.10 |
| Industrial valves | 3491 | 1.69 | 1.77 | Stable | A | 1.47 | 0.06 |
| Fluid power valves and hose fittings | 3492 | 1.44 | 1.34 | Stable | A | 1.47 | 0.06 |
| Other valves and pipe fittings | 3494 | 2.78 | 3.91 | Falling | A | 1.47 | 0.06 |
| Miscellaneous fabricated wire products | 3496 | 0.13 | 0.31 | Falling | C | 5.12 | 0.66 |
| Fabricated pipe and fittings | 3498 | 1.91 | 1.37 | Stable | A | 1.47 | 0.06 |
| Ball and roller bearings | 3562 | 1.46 | 0.91 | Stable | A | 3.77 | -0.76 |
| ¹ Average product price changes are calculated from the producer price index for each 4-digit SIC (standard industrial classification) industry from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. ² Analyses of each industry's direct manufacturing cost changes are from Thinking Cap Solutions, Inc.'s proprietary Industry Cost Escalation (ICE) model. The "grade" indicates that recent price/cost changes have produced record high (A+) margins to average margins (C) to record low (F-) margins for the average producer in an industry. Grades of A to A+ mean plant engineers may be able to strike a better bargain with suppliers and better control plant costs. ³ Growth in U.S. end markets data are from the ICE model and are estimates of output for the domestic end markets which purchase a given industry's products. All data prepared and presented by Thinking Cap Solutions, Inc., Port Angeles, WA (telephone: 360-452-6159; e-mail: ebaatz@ice-alert.com). |
|||||||
